Like many, I have felt my awareness and concern over the seriousness of climate change growing in recent times as peaceful protest combines with substantial scientific evidence to strongly suggest we are in big trouble. I awoke this morning to the Tweet below from the BBC which shocked me.

I decided today was the day to push aside other seemingly pressing matters and follow up Steve Melia’s advice to do some overdue reading – of the IPCC’s October 2018 report ‘Global warming of 1.5°C – Summary for Policymakers’ and the UK’s Committee on Climate Change July 2019 Progress Report to Parliament on Reducing UK Emissions and Preparing for Climate Change.

In the style I have grown to like, I’ve set out in this article the 10 things that strike me from my reading and reflection:

1.     What’s the verdict doctor? For a long time I didn’t go to the doctor – ignoring that there might be something wrong felt a good way of stopping it becoming real. Then I realised something really could be wrong so I went. Am I going to be OK doctor? Well, says the doctor, we don’t know for certain if there is something seriously wrong with you but if there is you should be very concerned. However, we have some advice – we have some things you can do and take that could contribute to curing your condition or at least prevent it from getting too much worse. We also have some things that could make life more comfortable if the condition persists or even gets worse. Thanks doctor, I say. A few month’s later I take stock and this is what I find: some doubt in the diagnosis has left me hesitant about wholeheartedly taking the doctor’s advice – distracted by other priorities, I’ve tinkered with options of cure and treatment. I’ve now got a letter from the doctor saying its more serious than she thought. Oh s%*t.

2.     Is my house on fire or someone else’s? – Greta Thunberg has told us our house is on fire. Its no good consoling myself with the fact that a fire extinguisher is due from Amazon. Its no good waiting for someone else to put it out. I need to act. But hang on, perhaps I’m mistaken, perhaps its not my house but someone else’s. I’m sorry for their predicament of course but I can now rest more easily and perhaps finish watching Eastenders. The IPCC report says “[a] reduction of 0.1 m in global sea level rise [potentially brought about by confining global temperature rise to 1.5°C instead of 2°C] implies that up to 10 million fewer people would be exposed to related risks, based on population in the year 2010 and assuming no adaptation (medium confidence)”. So a few million people in a world of billions. The odds sounds pretty good for me. The report also talks of matters of equity and ethics – the uneven distribution of the effects of climate change. But we live in a world where we have become sadly conditioned to the gap between the haves and the have nots. Climate change effects sound like business as usual then – regrettable but tolerable. Privilege should see me through.

3.     Reasonable doubt versus the precautionary principle – Its striking how the IPCC report goes to great lengths to signal the level of confidence in all of its observations. It is, after all, under scrutiny. We would love to discover that reasonable doubt exists that blossoms into a climate change hoax. Yet in the world of transport planning we have lived comfortably with reasonable doubt for decades – our road traffic forecasts are seldom right (and we know this) and yet business cases for investing are founded upon them – they give our decision makers enough confidence to proceed. The IPCC and others are dealing with attempting to interpret a highly complex system over long time periods so they are right to signal levels of confidence, but we should not misread ‘medium confidence’ to read ‘this can be dismissed because of reasonable doubt’ or ‘high confidence’ to read ‘we are not 100% sure which means we are unsure’. The precautionary principle looms large: “[t]he principle implies that there is a social responsibility to protect the public from exposure to harm, when scientific investigation has found a plausible risk”. Can plausible risk be refuted by anyone?

4.     Imperious immediacy of interest – In the 1930s the sociologist Merton wrote about unintended consequences. He suggested that there were five reasons why unanticipated consequences could come about – they are well worth a look. One which was most prominent for me was what he called ‘imperious immediacy of interest’ – short-term interests take priority over longer-term ones. We are caught in a world of great change with multiple uncertainties and predicaments. With these aside I would be delighted to worry about how my actions now might affect my grandchildren, their grandchildren and their grandchildren’s grandchildren. But I can’t. This week the Conservative Party chose a new Prime Minister for the UK. His entry into office was with a ‘DUDE’ mantra (sighs) – Deliver Brexit, Unite the UK, Defeat Jeremy Corbyn and Energise Britain. Climate change action will no doubt be on the agenda as well but it will have to accommodate these publicly stated priorities of immediate interest.

5.     Transitioning not tinkering – The IPCC report talks of transitions of unprecedented scale that are needed at pace if climate change and its effects are to be ‘less worse’. The CCC report points to the rapid move away from coal-fired power generation in recent years in the UK which signals that transitions can and do occur. But these are needed across sectors and at scale. I have written about the transport sector’s Digital Age Transition. The digital age and the motor age have collided and merged and I believe we have been in a transitional period for perhaps two decades, moving away from automobility to something new. This is significant because the transport sector appears one of the most stubborn to make progress on in terms of its climate change emissions. We need transition and we need it to be faster. But we need the right transition. The CCC report notes the slovenly progress towards electrifying the vehicle fleet but also notes a rise in walking and cycling. To my knowledge it makes no reference to driverless cars which might suggest this is not seen to be part of the transition that is needed in relation to climate change. We need decisive steps in policy and practice to accelerate the right sort of change in mobility.

6.     United we stand, divided we fall – Change in mobility is partly about policymakers shaping the future. But it has to also be about individuals changing behaviour. John Prescott’s 1998 White Paper was about ‘everyone doing their bit’. But its hard to bring to reality – everyone behaving selfishly (and rationally) can result in everyone being worse off collectively. We are all caught in social dilemmas and feedback loops. I had a run on Twitter recently about social dilemmas with the following Tweet:

I want my child to be able to walk safely to school but to achieve this requires collective action not to drive children to school – but in the absence of being able to get everyone else to change, I don’t change myself but apply the precautionary principle and drive my child to school. We need ways to break such social dilemmas. There are also feedback loops to be broken – beautifully illustrated by Giulio Mattioli earlier today on Twitter:

Human beings are resistant to change but are also hugely adaptable to change but there need to be catalysts for change to come about through breaking the social dilemmas and feedback loops. In 2003 the London Congestion Charge was a great example of this – the dilemma of the convenience of the car versus the more efficient movement of people by public transport was broken by a fiscal penalty for car use hypothecated into improved public transport provision. The result was a 30% reduction in congestion upon its introduction.

7.     Someone (else) will make it better or someone else will be to blame – Social dilemmas affect individuals but they also affect countries. If we all take climate change very seriously then we may all take a share in a better future as a result. But what if our country takes it seriously and acts in the long-term interest and others don’t? If they prioritise short-term interests and put themselves ‘first’, for example in making their economy great again, then we suffer inconvenience and don’t achieve the global change needed. Perhaps it would be better for us to ease off the pressure we are putting ourselves under and hope that someone else solves it? Alternatively if other countries are not stepping up to the challenge then we can at least point the finger at them as being to blame. Perhaps it’s the child in us as people and as nations that expects a ‘grown up’ to know what to do and make things better, or to carry the can. Its easy to shirk responsibility.

8.     Reaching for the moon – We need leadership like never before. To rise to the challenge because it’s the right thing to do. Its altruistic but in fact also rational and selfish because if others follow our lead then we may all be better off; if we don’t take a lead then we too will ultimately suffer. It seems uncanny that this month has been marking a celebration of incredible human ingenuity and ability to rise to what might have seemed an insurmountable challenge 50 years ago – landing on the moon. President John F Kennedy said “[w]e choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win.” When there is political will a nation can rise to a great challenge before it. There is a way to tackle great challenge but there needs to be the will – the political will that can in turn unlock the behaviour change of millions of people as our systems transition.

9.     Elephants – But academics (and consultants) need to play their part too. My University of Leeds colleague Professor Jillian Anable delivered a seminal keynote at this month’s Universities Transport Study Group annual conference here in the UK. She called it ‘Rearranging elephants on the Titanic’. I had the privilege of being there to listen. It was rather depressing. The script and slides are online and I strongly encourage everyone to take a look at them. In her abstract she says “Why is it that we – including transport academics – have so continuously and fundamentally failed over carbon mitigation? Climate change remains a peripheral issue within core transport research and teaching efforts and academics have not yet catalysed a meaningful mitigation agenda”. Jillian has set out a manifesto for transport research: (1) tell the truth; (2) call out what should NOT be done; (3) focus on the RIGHT policies; (4) challenge the dominant framing; (5) think BIG; and (6) get ACTIVE.

10.     Standing up and being counted – the news channels and journalists have today been portraying the exceptionally hot weather with pictures of people enjoying the sun. Sat on the Titanic in their deckchairs next to Jillian’s elephants. Meanwhile my eldest son is worried about climate change – he’s worried for himself and for his younger siblings. He sent me a message on WhatsApp last week asking “would you try and get yourself arrested for Extinction Rebellion?”. I don’t know the answer. He pointed to the perceived superficiality on social media of people posting concerns about climate change but not necessarily showing signs of any serious personal action behind those concerns to address them. I am challenged by this. I would like to think I’ve devoted my career to trying to help provide stewardship over a better future. Perhaps this remains where I can make most difference ultimately. But I do still fly, I do drive a car, I enjoy a steak. Admittedly I walk more, I use the train a lot, I work remotely thanks to the Internet, I can manage without a steak. But will I be able to look my grandchildren in the eye and say I did enough when it mattered? I need to think about this. But I also know I don’t have time to think about it.