Category: Foresight
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Changemakers – a podcast with the wonderful Annette Smith talking about FUTURES
Annette and I first started working together in the last century! We were once ‘young professionals’ and part of the Transport Visions Network. Years later we’ve found ourselves taking on the future together again. I’m delighted to be part of this new podcast from the University of the West of England in…
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10 years ago today I began my secondment as Strategy Director with the New Zealand Ministry of Transport
10 years ago today I began my secondment as Strategy Director with the Te Manatū Waka – Ministry of Transport (New Zealand). I flew over 11,000 miles to get there. I ended up making the NZ trip four times – over 90,000 fossil-fuelled miles. It was one of the great privileges…
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Transitioning to Net Zero
I’ve just taken part in the first 2024 webinar from the Association of European Transport’s Transport and Mobility Forum. Hosted by Conall Mac Aongusa, Chaired by Derek Halden and with Susan Krumdieck and Elizabete Arsenio alongside me on the Panel, we got stuck into the wicked matter of the future…
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A New Year’s radio interview, and Jevon’s Paradox
The transition to electric vehicles is in full swing and in the news, while I’ve been worring about Jevon’s Paradox. I’ve just done my first BBC Radio Bristol interview of 2024 on the topic of the EV transition. Putting aside politics and other matters about addressing the climate emergency, transitions…
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Foresight through developing shared mental models: The case of Triple Access Planning
On the sixth day of Christmas my true love gave to me…. six triple access futures, and a mental model in a pear tree. Daniela Paddeu and I are pleased to share our new paper (free to access) which sets out how systems thinking can be used to make sense of…
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You say scenario, I say scenario
Scenario planning is now entering the mainstream of transport planning – great! But hang on, now people are discovering that scenarios are not so easy-peasy when you try and develop and use them. You say ‘scenario’, but I say ‘scenario’. Oh dear, confusion is starting to creep in. What a…
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Engaging citizens in exploring the future of transport
30 citizens of Bristol have a taste of FUTURES – a six stage vision-led approach to strategic planning for an uncertain world (which applies Triple Access Planning to how to shape the future using Decide and Provide). Within the project ‘Triple Access Planning for Uncertain Futures‘, Mott MacDonald has been helping us…
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There will be no driverless cars on a dead planet
Anthropomorphism. One of the biggest words in my vocabulary – one I added right near the beginning of my personal journey deeper and deeper into the world of future mobility. I was delighted when Adam Hill, the Editor of ITS International Magazine asked me this summer whether I would share my thoughts on…
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In 2072 I may very well be dead. Today at the NCE ‘Future of Roads’ conference in London I was asked to look to 2072. I used a foresight interview method called ‘7 Questions’. So what did I have to say when I interviewed myself? Q1 – If you could…
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Opening out and closing down: the treatment of uncertainty in transport planning’s forecasting paradigm
By Glenn Lyons and Greg Marsden Download for free our new paper [1] that critically examines the history of road traffic forecasting in England from 1989 to 2018 in terms of the treatment of uncertainty and in turn brings into question how uncertainty is addressed in scheme appraisal guidance. In a team…