In 2072 I may very well be dead. Today at the NCE ‘Future of Roads’ conference in London I was asked to look to 2072. I used a foresight interview method called ‘7 Questions’. So what did I have to say when I interviewed myself?

Q1 – If you could speak to someone from the future who could tell you anything about roads, what would you like to ask?

Forget electric, connected, autonomous, flying cars and Elon Musk. “How bad is climate change?” and “In terms of roads what did we do to make a difference?”. These are my questions. National Highways acknowledges that, according to the CCC, we are on course for somewhere between a 2 and 4 degree increase in temperature. That implies the prospect of “really bad global trouble”.

Q2 – What is your vision for success?

The UK has to meet its promises and inspire and enable others. By 2072 we will have (amongst other things) built little if any new road capacity for many years, and invested heavily overall in *accessibility* resilience in society.

Q3 What are the dangers of not achieving your vision?

To quote a phrase from Lynn Basford and Annette Smith, ‘drift and panic’. We are still drifting along in our frogboiler, for the most part ignorant of the mounting peril. Panic will follow when we realise the unfolding consequences.

Q4 What needs to change if your vision is to be realised?

Mindset. We still have councillors equating economic prosperity to needing new roads. We have the madness of cars parked on pavements like a scene out of an old western where the cowboys tethered their horses. Our motives must move from politics, power and profit, to people, planet and prosperity. Now THAT’S a triple bottom line.

Q5 Looking back what are the successes we can build on? The failures we can learn from?

Success has come in the form of the digital age which has helped decouple economic output from road traffic activity. We CAN have more access to people, jobs, goods, services and opportunities, without necessarily having more motorised transport. Meanwhile, every time I look at the multi-lane traffic jams in LA I have to ask “If this is the answer, what was the question?”

Q6 What needs to be done now to ensure that your vision becomes a reality?

Slightly awkward to be presenting on this today because my answer was “National leadership (building upon that shown in Scotland and Wales”). We need national governments to set clear targets for reduction in car use while investing in improving the alternatives on offer.

Q7 If you had absolute authority and could do anything, is there anything else you would do?

Decide and provide: vision-led, not forecast-led; supply-led demand, not demand-led supply. Create a sensible balance of physical mobility, spatial proximity and digital connectivity to meet society’s access needs. No further highway capacity for private cars. Let demand respond (innovatively) to the supply on offer.

#roads#foresight#climatecrisis#HighwayToHell