Jet Zero is the UK Government’s 2022 strategy “delivering net zero aviation by 2050”. Jet Zero is ‘a high ambition scenario’ which would ‘only’ leave 19.3 MtCO2e/year still being emitted (domestic + international) in 2050. Pre-COVID annual emissions were 38.2 MtCO2e/year. “That doesn’t seem so impressive and doesn’t sound like zero” you may be thinking.

Jet Zero is also ambitious in terms of the future of UK aviation – growth of 70% in passenger numbers assumed from 2021 to 2050 which would equate to annual emissions increasing (without decarbonisation action) from 38.2 MtCO2e to 52MtCO2e by 2050. So – Jet Zero is about removing 63% of projected emissions – accounting for ambitious growth – by 2050.

19.3 Mt [million tonnes] CO2e/year is assumed to be ‘taken off the books’ by other parts of the UK economy through offsetting – other parts of the economy have to work harder to decarbonise.

The strategy notes that “[m]any of the technologies we need to achieve it [Jet Zero] are at an early stage of development or commercialisation; their nascent nature means that we do not yet know the optimal technological mix out to 2050”. Read also as: we do not yet know how far technology can take us in decarbonising aviation.

Aviation is a topic that would benefit from application of the Emulsion Methodology I used for driverless cars (bringing people with contrasting views and insights together to explore future prospects) – https://lnkd.in/dcC7EKx6.

In the meantime, here is my take on Jet Zero – I’d welcome others offering their own takes:

✈️Aviation as an industry not only wants to survive but to thrive through growth.
✈️ Having been a form of consumption for the few globally, growth is sometimes portrayed almost as a public service – giving more people more opportunity to benefit from flying.
✈️ On the basis of growth, an optimistic outlook is entertained that technology and offsetting will allow ‘sustainable aviation growth’ in a Code Red world.
✈️ Jet Zero has 5-yearly monitoring intentions but invites us to grow aviation first on the promise that decarbonisation will, or may, come later.

Let’s get together for more open-minded and constructive dialogue on this critical part of the decarbonisation puzzle.

In the meantime, arriving earlier this month at St Pancras International to take the more expensive train instead of plane from London to Paris, I was greeted by the advertising below. “Fly to Spain from £26.99” – a reminder of how cheap a mobility business can be when it does not address its external costs.

For an excellent analysis of the UK’s Jet Zero Strategy, head to Carbon Brief’s website – https://lnkd.in/e8B9ahEK

#theaviationpuzzle#jetzero#wickedproblems#Emulsion#netzero

Andrew CurryCharlene RohrJohn ReavyJames ColeAnnette SmithDavid BeareChris ChalkPaula Pontes