Is a transition in transport planning taking place? Is ‘decide and provide’ an innovation that is diffusing into thinking & practice, or is it following a hype cycle?

This evening I had the pleasure of speaking online at the Active Travel Cafe (https://lnkd.in/eerQvtrf) – an inspiring gathering of individuals passionate about….active travel. I’d been asked to talk about Decide and Provide & a sense of where it was on its journey as an alternative paradigm to Predict and Provide.

Next year will mark 10 years since we developed this approach at the Te Manatū Waka – Ministry of Transport (New Zealand) – and a decade of trying to socialise it in professional circles. My impression is that this journey is akin to the diffusion of innovation – there have been the innovators & we have in turn seen early adopters. Are we now starting to move into the early majority & late majority phases of the diffusion?

This said, it has also crossed my mind at times that Decide and Provide might be following a hype-cycle, often associated instead with technological innovation. In other words, has it captured people’s imagination, grown in visibility and received attention only to reach a ‘peak of inflated expectation’ after which it runs into the harsh realities of making it work in practice and in turn slips down towards the trough of disillusionment?

It’s clear that the incumbent regime of Predict and Provide isn’t going quietly. Indeed, in my recent assessment of the draft National Policy Statement for National Networks there were distinct hallmarks of its endurance. However, three fundamental developments may be giving Decide and Provide the impetus is needs to diffuse further and become more normalised:

1. the pandemic (exposing us all to the triple access reality of our lives (physical mobility + spatial proximity + digital connectivity);
2. the climate emergency (offering licence for stronger vision-led planning); and
3. the sense of deep uncertainty and state of flux arising from social, technological, economic, environmental and political drivers of change.

And perhaps the prospects of Decide and Provide will soon be seriously put to the test at least in England with a new round of local transport plans being developed. As I’ve said before, I think this new round is the last chance saloon for authorities around England that have declared climate emergencies and made pledges to decarbonise their economies.

Indeed perhaps its as much a matter of whether or not we are going to see Decide and Provide with teeth in the face of the climate emergency, rather than seeing Decide and Provide at all. The ‘providing’ that follows the ‘deciding’ has a lot to live up to & will be politically challenging.

Thanks to Claire Stocks for inviting me to the Active Travel Cafe & to the audience for their engagement and Mentimeter input on Decide and Provide (included in slides).

#transportplanning#strategicplanning#tripleaccessplanning#decideandprovide