Scenario planning is now entering the mainstream of transport planning – great! But hang on, now people are discovering that scenarios are not so easy-peasy when you try and develop and use them. You say ‘scenario’, but I say ‘scenario’. Oh dear, confusion is starting to creep in. What a mess!

Last week at the European Transport Conference Association for European Transport (AET) we delivered a presentation by myself, Stephen Cragg and Vincent Marchau in which we set out to highlight some of the sources of confusion and some advice on how to make sense of things to be able to move forwards.

We have addressed this through Seven Questions:

1. Why are we creating scenarios and what are they being used for?

2. Are unambiguous definitions about scenarios out of reach?

3. Are probable scenarios more important than preposterous ones?

4. If scenarios travel in sets, what is the ‘right’ set of scenarios to create and use?

5. Should scenarios only depict future factors beyond our direct control?

6. Can you rely upon an established set of scenarios for decision making over time?

7. Are numbers and narratives compatible in scenarios?

We’re happy now to share our slides with you. We would love to hear your reactions – what do you make of such questions, are you confused and why, and what other things confuse you that need to be addressed?

What we want to avoid is scenario planning in transport following a hype cycle whereby:

1. We talk up the value of scenarios in helping us accommodate uncertainty and make more robust decisions – this raises awareness, interest and hopes.

2. The prospect of scenario planning reaches a ‘peak of inflated expectations’.

3. Then, as practitioners try to engage with scenario development and scenario planning, they get confused and realise it is becoming complicated and making life difficult.

4. The prospect of scenario planning then moves down from the peak of inflated expectations to the ‘trough of disillusionment’.

5. We then have a long road ahead to move past the trough to gradually infuse mainstream practice with some semblance of scenarios analysis.

If we are indeed moving upward in expectations let’s see what we can do to avoid plummeting down into the trough! Your thoughts are very welcome.

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