Here’s your progressively zoomed-in May 2024 update on decarbonisation: globally as a whole, globally for transport, globally for direct emissions from transport, for direct emissions from transport in the UK and for car driving and flying.
The story goes like this in brief:
We need to reduce emissions globally by 45% compared to 2010 levels by the end of this decade (six years time)
If we don’t, temperature increases take us further towards and into dystopian futures
The reality is that annual global emissions haven’t yet peaked and CO2 levels in the atmosphere are at a record level
Around 20% of global emissions are from transport’s direct emissions
After a blip due to COVID-19 the trend lines are still upwards not downwards
In the UK 40% of direct emissions from transport are from car driving and 20% from flying
3% of the total UK car fleet is fully electric (97% isn’t)
The UK’s Jet Zero Strategy, putting faith in high ambition (and thanks to assuming 70% growth in passenger numbers), would result in levels of emissions from domestic+international aviation still being 50% of what they were pre-pandemic in 2050
The House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee recommends a review of this strategy by the end of 2025 and states that “Should the evidence of the review indicate that technological measures along will not deliver the emissions reductions predicted, we recommend that Ministers reconsider the role of demand management measures”
CCC School reports for the Government’s performance are uncomfortable – “the Government is failing in much of its implementation” (2022) and confidence “has markedly declined from last year” (2023)
On transport (2023 report) “The Government has made no progress on our recommendations on clarifying the role for car demand reduction”
Has the Government doubled down after these reports? The Prime Minister announced in 2023 “we’re going to ease the transition to electric vehicles” and also published ‘The Plan for Drivers’ with the opening line “There’s nothing wrong with driving”
Earlier this month the Government got school detention, again – “Britain’s climate action plan unlawful, high court rules”
If you’re not already getting the message, “Behaviour change to the stage please!”
We know in transport planning that we have three levers to address the climate emergency and must use all three – avoid travel where we can, shift to lower emitting modes and journeys, and improve the performance environmentally of the motorised travel that still takes place
In theory we should use all three levers, in practice overwhelming emphasis is on ‘improve’
We need to take urgent steps to amplify the role of ‘avoid’ and ‘shift’ – Triple Access Planning is a planning approach that can help with this
Let’s get a move on!!
The slide deck is available below to download. You can view a video of the slide deck with my audio commentary added on the original LinkedIn post.
What the hell is going on? 
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